Oil prices soared and stocks fell in Asia on Monday on the back of turmoil in the Middle East after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, with the vital Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and several ships attacked.
In early trade in Asia, Brent Crude rocketed to just over $80 per barrel compared to the closing price of $72.87 on Friday, before easing slightly to below $79.
On stock markets, Japan’s Nikkei was down 2.2 percent in early trade and Sydney was 0.5 percent lower.
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Gold, a safe haven investment, rose two percent. Brent, the international benchmark for crude, already rose last week ahead of the strikes that began on Saturday and which killed supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
US President Donald Trump has called on Iranians to rise up against their government and said the war could last “four weeks”.
Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone campaign in the Gulf killed four people and wounded dozens more, the UAE foreign ministry said. While Iran has not officially closed the Strait of Hormuz – through which around 20 percent of global seaborne oil passes – its Revolutionary Guards have warned against transiting the waterway.
On Sunday, at least two ships were struck, one off Oman’s coast and another off the UAE’s, British maritime security agency UKMTO said.
Iranian state television said an oil tanker was struck and was sinking after trying to “illegally” pass through the strait. In such a situation, insurance costs become prohibitive, said Amena Bakr, head of Middle East and OPEC+ research at analysts Kpler, predicting that the price could hit $90.
The main shipping companies have already confirmed that they are suspending the passage of their fleets along the route.
Trump’s ‘Achilles heel’
“While some alternate infrastructure could be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the net impact from its closure would be a loss of 8 million to 10 million bpd (barrels per day) of crude oil supply,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst with Rystad Energy, in a note on Saturday.
In theory, oil-importing countries have reserves, with OECD members required to maintain 90 days’ worth of oil stocks, but prices above $100 cannot be ruled out.
If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, “no matter how much spare capacity (in the strategic reserves) is not going to fill that gap. That gap is just too big”, said Bakr.
Another analyst at Kpler, Michelle Brouhard, described high oil prices as “the Achilles heel of Trump”. In her view, Iran is likely to look to keep crude prices high to force Trump to back down, as he promised his electorate low prices, at a time when the United States is already gearing up for mid-term elections at the end of this year.
‘Harmful effect’
Gas prices were also expected to soar on Monday, as Qatar is a key exporter of liquefied natural gas, heightening inflationary risks. The rise in hydrocarbon prices is bad for the economy.
The last time crude prices climbed above $100 was at the start of the war in Ukraine. Gas prices also soared, which played a major role in a prolonged period of rising prices.
Rising petrol prices, higher energy prices, increased shipping costs and loss of revenue for air transport could have “a harmful effect on growth”, said economist Eric Dor, from the IESEG School of Management in Paris.
“If it’s a matter of three days, it’s not serious. But if it’s over a longer period, then it will have an additional recessionary effect,” he told AFP.
On the stock market, some sectors could be winners on Monday, such as defence, but Dor instead said he expected “declines” in share prices, particularly in the air transport, maritime transport and tourism sectors.
