Fitch Solutions says the Ghana cedi’s recent strength is expected to hold through 2025 and 2026, supported by the Bank of Ghana’s robust international reserves of US$7.9 billion and historically high gold prices.
In its latest article, “What Our Clients Want to Know: Sub-Saharan Africa Q3 2025 Macroeconomic Update”, the UK-based firm, however, warned that a sharp drop in gold prices—possibly triggered by easing geopolitical tensions—could pressure the local currency.
“A hypothetical decline in gold prices, which could potentially be triggered by a sudden easing of geopolitical tensions, would quickly erode Ghana’s export earnings, push the current account back into deficit, and undermine reserve adequacy.”
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“In such a scenario, the central bank would struggle to defend the cedi and would likely be forced to let the currency weaken”, it added.
The central bank reports that the cedi appreciated by 40.7% against the US dollar in the first seven months of 2025, trading at GH¢10.45 to $1 on the interbank market by end-July. In May and June, the cedi gained 43% and 42.6% respectively against the dollar.
Against the euro, the cedi appreciated by 24.2% in June to GH¢12.25, and by 31.2% against the pound to GH¢14.02.
As of now, the cedi trades at GH¢10.50 to the dollar on the interbank market and GH¢12 on the retail market.
